RFE
21 Feb 2025

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at concerns in Tehran that Russia might sell Iran out in order to get a good deal with the United States.

What You Need To Know

Apprehensive Iran Watches U.S.-Russia Talks: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met in Riyadh on February 18 in what were thefirst direct talksbetween top American and Russian officials on ending the war in Ukraine. The development has fueled concerns in Tehran that Moscow will abandon Iran to revive relations with Washington and get a good deal.

Potential For Saudi Mediation Between Tehran And Washington:Saudi Arabia has reportedly offered to mediate talks between its rival Iran and ally the United States.Analysts saythe Saudis are driven by ensuring stability in the region and a desire to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb as they seek to become a global economic and diplomatic powerhouse.

Khamenei Wants Qatar To Release Iranian Assets: Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 19 told the visiting Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to ignore U.S. pressure and release Iranian assets in Qatar. The assets he was referring to are around $6 billion in frozen funds which weretransferred from South Korea to Qataras part of a 2023 deal with the United States that included therelease of American citizensin Iran. Iran could access the funds for humanitarian purposes with Washingtons approval, but that access wasblockedfollowing the outbreak of the Gaza war, given Irans support for the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

Snippet: Farda Briefing - In Text - Signup Box

The Big Issue

Iran Fears Being Hung Out To Dry

The Riyadh talks ended after more than fours hours with the top U.S. and Russian diplomats agreeing to move quickly to normalize relations and start negotiations on ending the Ukraine conflict, which marks its three-year anniversary on February 24.

Almost as soon as Rubio and Lavrov finished their meeting, online chatter among Iranians focused on one thing: Russia is going to sell Iran out to get a good deal.

Fueling this sentiment is a comment by Keith Kellogg, U.S. President Donald Trumps special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, who said on February 15 that it is very important to prevent Russias alliances with Iran, China, and North Korea from solidifying.

Why It Matters:Tehran and Moscow have grown closer and enhanced military cooperation since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and was hit by a slew of Western sanctions. Iran has notably been providing Russia with cheap but deadly drones that have been used against Ukraine, though both Tehran and Moscow deny it.

In January,they signeda 20-year strategic agreement to strengthen economic, political, and military ties.

Iran relies on Russia and China to protect itself against sanctions as well as resolutions tabled at the UN Security Council.

What's Being Said:The moderate conservative newspaper Jomhuriy-e Eslami, which has long warned against trusting Moscow, charged on February 19 that the repercussions of any U.S.-Russia agreement will impact Iran because Moscow has a record of going back on its promises to its allies.

Iran-based commentator Saeed Meshkat said he was pessimistic about the talks because Ukraine and Iran will ultimately become bargaining chips in future negotiations.

Mohsen Milani, a political analyst based in the United States, urged Tehran to reconsiderits positionon direct talks with Washington before Russia can negotiate Irans rights away to secure its own interests.

Expert Opinion:As a principle in international relations, power is a determining factor. Naturally, it is not strange for super powers to use smaller countries as tools and leverage to secure their interests, Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribehere. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.