California's fuel price could rise if state overhauls key climate program

SACRAMENTO, California: California is planning to overhaul its Low Carbon Fuel Standard, a key climate program that aims to reduce emissions from transportation fuels.

The proposal has sparked heated debate, primarily because it could raise gasoline prices in a state where residents already pay the most at the pump.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) will vote on the proposed changes on November 8, shortly after an election that highlighted concerns over rising costs. The program, which started in 2011, uses a credit trading system to encourage cleaner fuel production, offering incentives for biofuels made from sources like soybeans and manure.

While it has helped phase out fossil fuels and reduce emissions, the proposed amendments aim to strengthen its targets, pushing for a 30 percent reduction in carbon intensity by 2030 and 90 percent by 2045.

The planned changes have generated public concern over potential price hikes, with over 100 people submitting complaints about the amendments. Critics, including Republicans in California's Legislature and U.S. House, have urged a delay, arguing that tightening the standards could drive up costs for consumers. Some estimates suggest the revised program could add up to 47 cents per gallon for gasoline and 59 cents for diesel by 2025, although CARB officials have since downplayed those figures.

According to CARB Chair Liane Randolph, the changes are essential for California to meet its ambitious climate goals. "The Low Carbon Fuel Standard is one of California's most significant and effective climate programs," Randolph told CalMatters, emphasizing its role in reducing greenhouse gases and encouraging the adoption of electric and hydrogen vehicles.

The program has been particularly effective for medium and heavy-duty trucks, displacing 25 billion gallons of petroleum fuel since its inception. However, it has also faced criticism. The Western States Petroleum Association, representing oil companies, has expressed concerns that the tighter standards could increase costs and strain fuel supplies.

Biofuels have played a central role in the program, but experts have raised environmental concerns. While biofuels are cleaner than traditional fossil fuels, their production can lead to issues such as deforestation and disruptions in food systems. In response, CARB has proposed limits on fuels made from crops like soybean oil.

A contentious issue is the potential phaseout of credits for biofuels derived from dairy manure, which has helped California cut methane emissions. Environmental groups argue that these credits support large-scale dairy farms that pollute rural areas, while the dairy industry defends them as a tool for reducing emissions.

The air board's final proposal also avoided stricter regulation on jet fuel, bowing to pressure from the aviation industry. As CARB prepares for the November vote, the debate over how best to balance climate goals with economic realities remains as intense as ever.